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Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries

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  • de Bondt, Gabe
  • Gieseck, Arne
  • Zekaite, Zivile
  • Herrero, Pablo

Abstract

This study extends a thick modelling tool for aggregated euro area real private consumption of de Bondt et al. (2019) to the four largest euro area countries. The suite of error correction models performs well in and out of sample. The ranges and averages of estimated elasticities are, however, sensitive to the exact model specification. We also show that decomposing disposable income into labour, property and transfer income is essential for understanding and forecasting consumption. Finally, substantial crosscountry heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume out of income and wealth components calls for caution when interpreting aggregate euro area developments. JEL Classification: C53, D12, E21, E27

Suggested Citation

  • de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Zekaite, Zivile & Herrero, Pablo, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2343, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192343
    Note: 337418
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gabe Jacob de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Zivile Zekaite, 2020. "Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 257-286, January.
    3. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2021 - Delle im Aufholprozess [German Economy Autumn 2021 - Protracted catching-up process]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 83, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Dimitrios Sideris & Georgia Pavlou, 2021. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects on private consumption in Greece," Working Papers 293, Bank of Greece.
    5. Haertel, Thomas & Hamburg, Britta & Kusin, Vladimir, 2022. "The macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank revisited," Technical Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ana del Río & José Antonio Cuenca, 2020. "Euro area household income and saving during the first wave of the pandemic," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    income; private consumption; thick modelling; wealth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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