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How Important is Wealth for Explaining Household Consumption Over the Recent Crisis?: An Empirical Study for the United States, Japan and the Euro Area

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  • Clovis Kerdrain
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    Abstract

    This paper provides new empirical results linking financial and housing wealth to household consumption for the United States, Japan and the euro area. The results suggest that there are important cross-country differences in how wealth, especially housing wealth, affects consumption. They further demonstrate that it can be important to take into account wealth effects on consumption in short-term forecasting exercises, a point which is particularly well illustrated in relation to the recent economic crisis. In addition, conditional projections underline the importance of asset price developments and wealth in determining US savings over the medium term. Quelle est l'importance du patrimoine pour expliquer la consommation des ménages au cours de la crise récente ? : Une étude empirique appliquée aux États-Unis, au Japon et à la zone euro Cette étude fournit de nouveaux résultats empiriques établissant un lien entre la consommation des ménages et leur patrimoine financier et immobilier aux États-Unis, au Japon et pour la zone euro. Les résultats suggèrent que l'importance des effets-richesse dans la consommation varie sensiblement entre les pays, en particulier en ce qui concerne la richesse immobilière. Ils montrent également qu'il peut être important de prendre en compte ces effets-richesse dans les exercices de prévision de la consommation à court terme, ce que la période de crise récente permet d'illustrer. De plus, des projections conditionnelles soulignent l’importance de l’évolution des prix d’actifs et de la richesse dans la détermination de l’épargne aux Etats-Unis sur le moyen terme.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kgc42qxm237-en
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 869.

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    Date of creation: 25 May 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:869-en

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    Keywords: housing wealth; Patrimoine immobilier; patrimoine financier; Équation de consommation; effet de richesse;

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