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Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax

Author

Listed:
  • Baumann, Ursel
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Dizioli, Allan Gloe

Abstract

Members of the US House of Representatives have proposed a major overhaul of the US corporate tax system, the so-called “destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax” (DBCFT). The literature on the economic implications and spillovers of such a DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mechanics of such a tax, its macroeconomic implications as well as its global spillovers using a fully structural global multi-country model. Our results suggest that the short term macroeconomic impact of the reform would depend primarily on how permanent agents perceive the policy to be. Robustness scenarios show that the magnitude of the short term impact will also depend on the extent to which exporters are reimbursed by their domestic costs; what categories of goods are excluded from the reform; how the government uses the revenues generated by the border adjusted tax; and the pricing system used by exporters. Moreover, global spillovers will depend on how easy it is to replace imported goods by domestic production; whether US trading partners retaliate, and how financial markets in emerging economies react. If there is disequilibrium in relative prices in the short term, global economic activity spillovers could be strongly negative and world trade could decline substantially. JEL Classification: C68, E47, F41, F44, F62, O41

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Ursel & Dieppe, Alistair & Dizioli, Allan Gloe, 2017. "Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax," Working Paper Series 2093, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172093
    Note: 345263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alan J. Auerbach, 2017. "Demystifying the Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 409-432.
    2. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.
    3. Bond, Eric W. & Gresik, Thomas A., 2020. "Unilateral tax reform: Border adjusted taxes, cash flow taxes, and transfer pricing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Eric W. Bond & Thomas A. Gresik, 2023. "On the incentive compatibility of universal adoption of destination-based cash flow taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1576-1600, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; international business cycle; spillovers model based analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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