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Crowding-out or co-existence? the competitive position of EU members and China in global merchandise trade

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  • Benkovskis, Konstantins
  • Silgoner, Maria
  • Steiner, Katharina
  • Wörz, Julia

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse export competition between individual EU Member States and China in third-country goods markets. We find that competitive pressure from China is strongest for small and peripheral EU members, especially for the Southern periphery, Ireland and Central, Eastern and South-eastern European EU members. While we find no hard evidence for "cut-throat" competition between China and EU countries, we see an increasing tendency of smaller EU exporters leaving markets that are increasingly served by China. We base our findings on traditional market share analysis, the exploration of intensive versus extensive margin export growth and on a Dynamic Trade Link Analysis. The latter, a newly developed tool, identifies different types of competitive pressure at the detailed product-destination market level. We use UN Comtrade data at the highest level of disaggregation (6-digit HS) for 75 world exporters and importers over the period 2000-2011. JEL Classification: F14, F15, O57

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1617.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131617

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Keywords: China; competitiveness; European Union; extensive margin; sectoral market shares; trade links;

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  1. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2006. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 642-674, December.
  2. Konstantīns Beņkovskis, 2012. "Competitiveness of Latvia's exporters," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 17-45, December.
  3. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-77, March.
  4. Angela Cheptea & Lionel Fontagné & Soledad Zignago, 2012. "European Export Performance," Working Papers 2012-19, CEPII research center.
  5. Amiti, Mary & Freund, Caroline, 2008. "The anatomy of China's export growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4628, The World Bank.
  6. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07.
  7. Silgoner, Maria & Steiner, Katharina & Wörz, Julia & Schitter, Christian, 2013. "Fishing in the same pool? export strengths and competitiveness of China and CESEE in the EU-15 Market," Working Paper Series 1559, European Central Bank.
  8. Angela Cheptea & Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2004. "The World Market: Market Shares and Export Performances," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 231.
  9. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
  10. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ramune Rimgailaite, 2010. "The Quality and Variety of Exports from New EU Member States: Evidence from Very Disaggregated Data," Working Papers 2010/02, Latvijas Banka.
  11. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 0446, European Central Bank.
  12. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, 02.
  13. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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