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The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-out Fear Warranted?

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  • Prema-chandra Athukorala

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Abstract

This paper examines the effects of China’s rapid integration into the global economy on export performance of its East Asian neighbours against the backdrop of ongoing changes in patterns of international production. Following a stage-setting overview of trends and patterns of China’s export performance since the early 1990s, it probes two key themes central to the current policy debate, namely China competition in third country markets and emerging patterns of East Asian exports to China. The statistical analysis places particular emphasis on the supply-side complementarities between China and its East Asian neighbours resulting from China’s rapid integration into regional production networks. The findings suggest that the fear of export crowding-out has been vastly exaggerated in the contemporary policy debate on the implications of China’s rise.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2007/wp-econ-2007-10.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2007-10.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2007-10

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Keywords: China; export performance; production fragmentation;

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References

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  1. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns:East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2009-15, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "Trends and Patterns of Foreign Direct Investments In Asia: A Comparative Perspective," Departmental Working Papers 2009-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  8. Richard B. Freeman, 2006. "Does Globalization of the Scientific/Engineering Workforce Threaten U.S. Economic Leadership?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 6, pages 123-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  15. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 65-95, January.
  16. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2010. "East Asia in World Trade: The Decoupling Fallacy, Crisis, and Policy Challenges," FIW Working Paper series 052, FIW.
  17. Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region: How Wide, How Deep?," School of Economics Working Papers 2009-31, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  18. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  19. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "The rise of offshoring: it's not wine for cloth anymore," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-102.
  20. Knight, John & Wang, Wei, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  21. Hausmann, Ricardo & Lim, Edwin & Spence, Michael, 2006. "China and the Global Economy: Medium-Term Issues and Options--A Synthesis Report," Working Paper Series rwp06-029, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  22. Brown, Clair & Linden, Greg, 2005. "Offshoring in the Semiconductor Industry: Historical Perspectives," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt0wv0k78t, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  23. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2003. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Departmental Working Papers 2003-21, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  24. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
  25. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2011. "China’s Trade in Asia and the World: Long run Relation with Short run Dynamics," MPRA Paper 30664, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 May 2011.
  26. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Hal Hill, 2010. "Asian trade: long-term patterns and key policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 52-82, November.
  27. Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
  28. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Ronald W. Jones, 2000. "Globalization and the Theory of Input Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026210086x, December.
  30. Athukorala, Prema-Chandra, 2011. "South-South Trade: An Asian Perspective," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 265, Asian Development Bank.
  31. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Jayant Menon, 2010. "Global Production Sharing, Trade Patterns and Determinants of Trade Flows," Departmental Working Papers 2010-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  32. Ian Coxhead & Sisira Jayasuriya, 2010. "China, India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low-income Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 525-551, 04.
  33. Athukorala, Prema–Chandra & Menon, Jayant, 2010. "Global Production Sharing, Trade Patterns, and Determinants of Trade Flows in East Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 41, Asian Development Bank.
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