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Non-fundamental exchange rate volatility and welfare

Author

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  • Straub, Roland
  • Tchakarov, Ivan

Abstract

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open economy VAR. Our results for Canada, Germany and UK indicate that the effects of exchange rate uncertainty are small empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open economy model. The second order approximation method of Sims [2003] is applied to the model equilibrium conditions. We show that in a model with habit persistence, even non-fundamental exchange rate volatility that generate only small variation in the unconditional mean of the variables might induce economically significant welfare changes. JEL Classification: C32, F31, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Straub, Roland & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2004. "Non-fundamental exchange rate volatility and welfare," Working Paper Series 328, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004328
    Note: 1065946
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
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    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
    6. Ivan Tchakarov & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Matter for Welfare?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 61, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Faruqee, Hamid & Hakura, Dalia S., 2005. "Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 349-374, March.
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    9. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.
    2. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jagjit Chadha & Qi Sun, 2010. "Productivity, Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 365-391, July.
    3. Paul Alagidede & Muazu Ibrahim, 2017. "On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 169-193, April.
    4. Annika Alexius & Erik Post, 2008. "Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 527-541, November.
    5. Boris Blagov, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and import prices in the euro area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1537-1572, November.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    7. Victor Shevchuk & Roman Kopych, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.
    8. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    9. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jagjit Chadha & Qi Sun, 2010. "Productivity, Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 365-391, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate volatility; GARCH-SVAR; Second-order;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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