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Do the technical indicators reward chartists? A study on the stock markets of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

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Author Info

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (SCAPE)

  • Jun Du
  • Terence Tai-Leung Chong

Abstract

This paper studies the profitability of applying technical analysis that signals the entry and exit from the stock market in three Chinese stock markets - the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan Stock Exchanges. The Simple Moving Average (MA) and its extensions, Exponential MA, Dual MA, Triple MA, MACD and TRIX for both long and short strategies are examined. Applying the trading signals generated by the MA family to the Greater China markets, significantly positive returns are generated, which outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. The cumulative wealth obtained also surpasses that of the buy-and-hold strategy regardless of transaction costs. In addition, we study the performance of the MA family before and after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and find that the MA family works well in both sub-periods and in different market conditions of bull runs, bear markets and mixed markets. That technical analysis can forecast the directions of these markets implies that the three China stock markets are not efficient.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 22587.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22587

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Keywords: Technical analysis; Moving Average; buy-and-hold strategy;

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  1. Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2002. "How Rewarding Is Technical Analysis? Evidence From Singapore Stock Market," Departmental Working Papers wp0216, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
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  4. Udo Broll & Jack E. Wahl & Wing-Keung Wong, 2005. "Elasticity of risk aversion and international trade," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 07/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
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  8. Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004. "On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
  9. Wing-Keung Wong & Guorui Bian, 2004. "Estimating Parameters in Autoregressive Models with Asymmetric Innovations," Departmental Working Papers wp0408, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
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  16. Thomas Shik & Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2007. "A comparison of MA and RSI returns with exchange rate intervention," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 371-383.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael McAleer & John Suen & Wing Keung Wong, 2013. "Profiteering from the Dot-com Bubble, Sub-Prime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers in Economics 13/20, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Sanjeev K. Routray, 2006. "Two Kinds of Activism: Reflections on Citizenship in Globalising Delhi," Working Papers id:463, eSocialSciences.

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