This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Do the technical indicators reward chartists? A study on the stock markets of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Wing-Keung Wong () (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
Jun Du (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
Terence Tai-Leung Chong (Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper studies the profitability of applying technical analysis that signals the entry and exit from the stock market in three Chinese stock markets - the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan Stock Exchanges. The Simple Moving Average (MA) and its extensions, Exponential MA, Dual MA, Triple MA, MACD and TRIX for both long and short strategies are examined. Applying the trading signals generated by the MA family to the Greater China markets, significantly positive returns are generated, which outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. The cumulative wealth obtained also surpasses that of the buy-and-hold strategy regardless of transaction costs. In addition, we study the performance of the MA family before and after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and find that the MA family works well in both sub-periods and in different market conditions of bull runs, bear markets and mixed markets. That technical analysis can forecast the directions of these markets implies that the three China stock markets are not efficient.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp-scape/0512.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE in its series SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 0512.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0512

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/scape/index.html
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Technical analysis; Moving Average; buy-and-hold strategy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. E. Woodrow Eckard, 2005. "Are Autocratic Rulers Also Inside Traders? Cross-Country Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 13-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kenneth A. Froot & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1990. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," NBER Working Papers 3250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Udo Broll & Jack E. Wahl & Wing-Keung Wong, 2005. "Elasticity of risk aversion and international trade," Monash Economics Working Papers 07/05, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Wong, Wing-Keung & Bian, Guorui, 2005. "Estimating parameters in autoregressive models with asymmetric innovations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 61-70, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2003. "How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 543-551, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Wing-Keung Wong & Raymond H. Chan, 2004. "On the Estimation of Cost of Capital and its Reliability," Departmental Working Papers wp0401, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Thomas C. Shik & Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2007. "A comparison of MA and RSI returns with exchange rate intervention," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(5-6), pages 371-383. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Joseph Man-Joe Leung & Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2003. "An empirical comparison of moving average envelopes and Bollinger Bands," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 339-341, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Jensen, Michael C & Bennington, George A, 1970. "Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 469-82, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Springer Verlag was the first commercial publisher to be listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.