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Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy

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Author Info
Bill Russell

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Abstract

This paper reports on research into the negative relationship between inflation and the markup. It is argued that this relationship can be thought of as ‘long-run’ in nature which suggests that inflation has a persistent effect on the markup and, therefore, the real wage. A ‘rule of thumb’ from the estimates indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in inflation (as occurred worldwide in the 1970s) is associated with around a 7 per cent fall in the markup accompanied by a similar increase in the real wage. It is argued that movements of this magnitude in the markup and the real wage will have important implications for a range of economic outcomes such as unemployment, employment and investment.

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File URL: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/econman/discussion/DDPE_191.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Dundee, Economic Studies in its series Discussion Papers with number 191.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:191

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Postal: Dundee, DD1 4HN
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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Wages; Prices; Markup; Monetary Policy; Competition;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McDonald, Ian M & Spindler, Karen J, 1987. "An Empirical Investigation of Customer Market Analysis--A Microfoundation for Macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1149-74, September.
  3. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Cooper, Russell, 1989. "Multiplicity of Equilibria and Fluctuations in Dynamic Imperfectly Competitive Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 353-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Russell, B., 1996. "The Non-Linear Long-Run Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 99182, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes," CEPR Discussion Papers 777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1990. "Inflation, Output and Labour Productivity When Prices Are Changed Infrequently," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 57(226), pages 201-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Yu-Fu CHEN & Bill RUSSELL, 2002. "An Optimising Model of Price Adjustment with Missing Information," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/03, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Benabou, Roland & Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1994. "On Inflation and Output with Costly Price Changes: A Simple Unifying Result," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 290-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2006. "A markup model for forecasting inflation for the euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 495-511. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bils, Mark, 1989. "Pricing in a Customer Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 699-718, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Benabou, Roland, 1992. "Inflation and markups : Theories and evidence from the retail trade sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 566-574, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Banerjee, Anindya & Russell, Bill, 2005. "Inflation and measures of the markup," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 289-306, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Kuran, Timur, 1986. "Price Adjustment Costs, Anticipated Inflation, and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 407-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bill RUSSELL & Jonathan EVANS & Bruce PRESTON, 2002. "The Impact of Inflation and Uncertainty on the Optimum Markup Set by Firms," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/02, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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