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Information, Investment, and the Stock Market: A Study of Investment Revision Data of Japanese Manufacturing Industries

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  • Kazuo Ogawa
  • Kazuyuki Suzuki

Abstract

We examined investment behavior in the Japanese manufacturing industry using investment revision data to analyze investment behavior from a fresh angle. We tested the martingale investment hypothesis and then the q-theory of investment by looking at the response of stock return and investment to news arriving at firms. The martingale hypothesis was generally accepted, and we also found evidence for the validity of the q-theory hypothesis. Investment was responsive to profit rate revision and sales revision, but stock return responded only to profit rate revision. Further investigation revealed that investment was also motivated by expansion of market share for sales, especially for industries with rapid technological progress.

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Paper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0681.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0681

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  1. Owen Lamont, 1999. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 6973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  3. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1991. "Generalized Q Models for Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 383-92, August.
  4. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
  5. Ogawa, K. & Kitasaka, S.I., 1995. "Market Valuation and the Q-Theory Investment," ISER Discussion Paper 0383, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Blanchard, O. & Rhee, C. & Summers, L., 1990. "The Stock Market, Profit And Investment," RCER Working Papers 233, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Lindenberg, Eric B & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "Tobin's q Ratio and Industrial Organization," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 1-32, January.
  8. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April.
  9. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
  11. Mark Schankerman, 2002. "Idiosyncratic and Common Shocks to Investment Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 766-785, October.
  12. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  13. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July.
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