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Information, Investment, and the Stock Market: A Study of Investment Revision Data of Japanese Manufacturing Industries

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Kazuo Ogawa
Kazuyuki Suzuki

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Abstract

We examined investment behavior in the Japanese manufacturing industry using investment revision data to analyze investment behavior from a fresh angle. We tested the martingale investment hypothesis and then the q-theory of investment by looking at the response of stock return and investment to news arriving at firms. The martingale hypothesis was generally accepted, and we also found evidence for the validity of the q-theory hypothesis. Investment was responsive to profit rate revision and sales revision, but stock return responded only to profit rate revision. Further investigation revealed that investment was also motivated by expansion of market share for sales, especially for industries with rapid technological progress.

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File URL: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2007/DP0681.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0681.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0681

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  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mark Schankerman, 2002. "Idiosyncratic and Common Shocks to Investment Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 766-785, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier & Rhee, Changyong & Summers, Lawrence, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Owen Lamont, . "Investment Plans and Stock Returns."," CRSP working papers 488, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  8. Ogawa, K. & Kitasaka, S.I., 1995. "Market Valuation and the Q-Theory Investment," Papers 383, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
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