This paper investigates the impacts of the eastern enlargement of the European Union in 2004 and the liberalisation of European electricity markets on Germanys electricity exchange with neighbouring countries and on electricity prices. Thus, electricity imports from Czech Republic have increased sharply in the last few years and have dampened German wholesale prices for electricity. In this paper the EMELIE simulation model, a game theoretic model for the European electricity market, is applied to analyse possible long-term effects of these changes. In the model calculations it is assumed that competition will prevail on the European electricity market in 2030, as far as possible with the existing transmission capacities. Primary energy prices are assumed to increase moderately from 2004 to 2030 (30 % for gas and 15 % for hard coal), and the price for CO2-certificates is assumed to remain high (€25/t). It is further assumed that Germany sticks to the aim to shut down nuclear power stations [...]
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number
632.
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