The Welfare State, Thresholds, and Economic Growth
AbstractCan a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies expe-rienced during 1970-1975 are preceded by movements to a high welfare state regime. This suggests that expanding welfare state regimes are associated with low economic growth regimes, while contracting welfare state regimes are associated with high growth regimes. However, we also find that the structural decline in growth rates leads to a downward structural break in the welfare state for many welfare state economies. This suggests that declining growth regimes are associated with contracting welfare state regimes, as lower growth forces politicians to cut the size of the welfare state. We also report strong evidence that both expansion and contractions in the welfare state affects growth non-linearly. These results are able to characterize a predictable and general pattern of welfare state-growth evolution.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 424.
Length: 53 p.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Welfare state; Structural change; Regime switching models; Positive political economy; Endogenous growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Fic, Tatiana & Ghate, Chetan, 2005. "The welfare state, thresholds, and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 571-598, May.
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chetan Ghate & Paul J. Zak, 2003.
"The Politics of Endogenous Growth,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
320, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Nordhaus, William D., 1982.
"Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 131-157.
- Nordhaus, William D., 1982. "Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 131-157.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1981. "Economic Policy in the Face of Declining Productivity Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 604, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999.
"Growing Through Cycles,"
Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
- Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Economics Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Matsuyama, K., 1996. "Growing through cycles," DELTA Working Papers 96-18, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Discussion Papers 1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- S. Brock Blomberg, 1994.
"Growth, political instability and the defense burden,"
9420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Blomberg, S Brock, 1996. "Growth, Political Instability and the Defence Burden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(252), pages 649-72, November.
- Stephen Brock Blomberg, 1992. "Growth, political instability, and the defense burden," International Finance Discussion Papers 436, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998.
"The New Empirics of Economic Growth,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Durlauf,S.N., 2000. "Econometric analysis and the study of economic growth : a skeptical perspective," Working papers 10, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Vito Tanzi & Howell H. Zee, 1997.
"Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 179-209, June.
- David Aschauer, 1988.
"Is public expenditure productive?,"
88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, octubre-d.
- Shigehara, Kumiharu, 1992. "Causes of declining growth in industrialized countries," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 15-39.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991.
"A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
609, The World Bank.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Tanzi, Vito & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1997. "Reforming government: An overview of recent experience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 395-417, September.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chetan Ghate & Paul J. Zak, .
"Growth of Government And The Politics of Fiscal Policy,"
Claremont Colleges Working Papers
2000-19, Claremont Colleges.
- Ghate, Chetan & Zak, Paul J., 2002. "Growth of government and the politics of fiscal policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 435-455, December.
- Graham C. Scott, 1996. "Government Reform in New Zealand," IMF Occasional Papers 140, International Monetary Fund.
- David Romer, 1997.
"Misconceptions and Political Outcomes,"
NBER Working Papers
6117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansson, Asa & Stuart, Charles, 2003. "Peaking of fiscal sizes of government," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 669-684, November.
- Rioja, Felix K., 1999. "Productiveness and welfare implications of public infrastructure: a dynamic two-sector general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-404, April.
- William Easterly & Sergio Rebelo, 1993.
"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
4499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- William A. Brock & Steven N.Durlauf, 2000.
"Growth Economics and Reality,"
NBER Working Papers
8041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Political and Economic Determinants of Budgetary Consolidation in Europe," European Political Economy Review, European Political Economy Infrastructure Consortium, vol. 1(Spring), pages 15-39.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "Cross-country studies of growth and policy : methodological, conceptual, and statistical problems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 608, The World Bank.
- Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
- Nicholas Barr, 1992. "Economic theory and the welfare state : a survey and interpretation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Fisher, Walter H., 1995. "The composition of government expenditure and its consequences for macroeconomic performance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-786, May.
- A. B. Atkinson, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Rolling Back the Welfare State," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011719, December.
- Martijn Brons & Henri L.F.M. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 1999. "Growth Effects of Fiscal Policies - A Comparative Analysis in a Multi-Country Context," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
- João Sousa Andrade & Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Despesa Pública em Educação e Saúde e Crescimento Económico: Um Contributo para o Debate sobre as Funções Sociais do Estado," GEMF Working Papers 2013-18, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.