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Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking

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  • Seo-Young Cho

Abstract

This study aims to identify robust push and pull factors of human trafficking. I test for the robustness of 78 push and 67 pull factors suggested in the literature. By employing an extreme bound analysis, running more than two million regressions with all possible combinations of variables for up to 180 countries during the period of 1995-2010, I show that crime prevalence robustly explains human trafficking prevalence both in destination and origin countries. My finding also implies that a low level of gender equality and development may have constraining effects on human trafficking outflows, contrary to expectations. The linkage between migration and human trafficking is less clear, and institutional quality matters more in origin countries than destinations.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.405651.de/diw_econsec0070.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Economics of Security Working Paper Series with number 70.

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Length: 35 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diweos:diweos70

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Keywords: Human trafficking; push and pull factors; robustness; extreme bound analysis;

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References

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  1. Akee, Randall K. Q. & Bedi, Arjun S. & Basu, Arnab K. & Chau, Nancy, 2011. "Transnational Trafficking, Law Enforcement and Victim Protection: A Middleman Trafficker's Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 6226, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Akee, Randall K. Q. & Basu, Arnab K. & Chau, Nancy & Khamis, Melanie, 2010. "Ethnic Fragmentation, Conflict, Displaced Persons and Human Trafficking: An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5142, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Gil Epstein & Ira Gang, 2010. "Migration and Culture," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1020, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  5. Guido Friebel & Sergei Guriev, 2002. "Smuggling Humans: A Theory of Debt-Financed Migration," Working Papers w0058, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), revised Dec 2005.
  6. Danailova-Trainor, Gergana & Belser, Patrick, 2006. "Globalization and the illicit market for human trafficking : an empirical analysis of supply and demand," ILO Working Papers 395339, International Labour Organization.
  7. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2010. "The spread of anti-trafficking policies: Evidence from a new index," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 119, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  8. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  9. Francesca Bettio & Tushar Nandi, 2010. "Evidence on women trafficked for sexual exploitation: A rights based analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 15-42, February.
  10. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2009. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," KOF Working papers 09-224, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  11. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2010. "The spread of anti-trafficking policies: Evidence from a new index," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 119, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  12. Maria Laura Di Tommaso & I. Shima & S. Strøm & F. Bettio, 2007. "As bad as it gets: well being deprivation of sexually exploited trafficked women," CHILD Working Papers wp10_07, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  13. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Trebesch, Christoph, 2009. "The Economic Drivers of Human Trafficking: Micro-Evidence from Five Eastern European Countries," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 38, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  14. Belser, Patrick, 2005. "Forced labour and human trafficking : estimating the profits," ILO Working Papers 376750, International Labour Organization.
  15. Seo-Young Cho, 2011. "Integrating Equality - Globalization, Women’s Rights, Son Preference and Human Trafficking," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 73, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  16. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Niklas Jakobsson & Andreas Kotsadam, 2013. "The law and economics of international sex slavery: prostitution laws and trafficking for sexual exploitation," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, February.
  18. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2013. "Does Legalized Prostitution Increase Human Trafficking?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 67-82.
  19. Soares, Rodrigo R., 2004. "Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 155-184, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Seo-Young Cho & Axel Dreher & Eric Neumayer, 2012. "The Determinants of Anti-trafficking Policies: Evidence from a New Index," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 72, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Policies against Human Trafficking: The Role of Religion and Political Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4278, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Niklas Potrafke, 2014. "The Evidence on Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 4708, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Seo-Young Cho, 2012. "Integrating Equality: Globalization, Women's Rights, and Human Trafficking," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 69, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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