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A Stochastic Dynamic Model of Trade and Growth: Convergence and Diversification

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  • Partha Chatterjee
  • Malik Shukayev

Abstract

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a deterministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. Our results differ from the deterministic models in several dimensions. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversifies. In this setting, when economies diversify, factor price equalization holds only in expected terms. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in achieving our results through an analytical example. Further, numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c013_034.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c013_034

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Keywords: Heckscher-Ohlin; Economic Growth; International Trade; Convergence; Diversification;

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References

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  1. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
  2. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Prescott, Edward C, 1992. "Stochastic Monotonicity and Stationary Distributions for Dynamic Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1387-406, November.
  3. Ventura, Jaume, 1997. "Growth and Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 57-84, February.
  4. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Gary Chamberlain & Charles A. Wilson, 2000. "Optimal Intertemporal Consumption Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 365-395, July.
  6. Eric W. Bond & Kathleen Trask & Ping Wang, 1996. "Factor Accumulation and Trade: Dynamic Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Physical and Human Capital," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0031, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Aug 2000.
  7. Mussa, Michael, 1978. "Dynamic Adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 775-91, October.
  8. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Clarida, Richard H, 1987. "Consumption, Liquidity Constraints and Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Income Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 339-51, June.
  10. Deardorff, A.V., 1997. "Rich and Poor Countries in Neoclassical Trade and Growth," Working Papers 402, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  11. Fisher, Eric O'N., 1995. "Growth, trade, and international transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 143-158, August.
  12. Zhiqi Chen, 1992. "Long-Run Equilibria in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 923-43, November.
  13. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Neoclassical Growth and Commodity Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 707-736, July.
  14. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Trade, growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 378, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Manjira Datta, . "Optimal Accumulation in a Small Open Economy with Technological Uncertainty," Working Papers 2132840, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  16. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Hecksher-Ohlin Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585, July.
  17. Findlay, Ronald, 1970. "Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 27-34, Jan.-Feb..
  18. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2006. "Demographics in dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin models: overlapping generations versus infinitely lived consumers," Staff Report 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1970. "Factor Price Equalization in a Dynamic Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 456-88, May-June.
  20. Smith, Alasdair, 1984. "Capital theory and trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 289-324 Elsevier.
  21. Chatterjee, Partha & Shukayev, Malik, 2008. "Note on positive lower bound of capital in the stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2137-2147, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2013. "Stochastic Stability in Monotone Economies," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-02, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  2. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2011. "Existence, Stability and Computation of Stationary Distributions: An Extension of the Hopenhayn-Prescott Theorem," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-32, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  3. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2012. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Stationary Distributions: An Extension of the Hopenhayn-Prescott Theorem," Discussion Paper Series DP2012-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  4. Takashi Kamihigashi & John Stachurski, 2011. "Stability of Stationary Distributions in Monotone Economies," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-561, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

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