IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/szg/worpap/1503.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An uncovered interest parity condition that worked - The continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the gold standard (1880 -1914)

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper examines an uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition that arguably held as regards the continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the classical gold standard. At that time, practical guide books about the foreign exchanges explained in detail how exchange and interest rates were connected. For data covering the 1880 to 1914 period, modern econometric methods uncover indeed that the interest from discounting bills of exchange in the open money markets of Paris, Amsterdam, and to a large degree also Berlin, and the return from investing in London bills followed the postulated proportional relationship. This result is remarkable given the widespread rejection of the UIP with modern data.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Herger, 2015. "An uncovered interest parity condition that worked - The continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the gold standard (1880 -1914)," Working Papers 15.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwender/Dokumente/working_papers/wp-1504.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: None
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claustre Bajona & Timothy Kehoe, 2010. "Trade, Growth, and Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 487-513, July.
    2. Eric W. Bond & Kathleen Trask & Ping Wang, 2003. "Factor Accumulation and Trade: Dynamic Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Physical and Human Capital," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1041-1060, August.
    3. Findlay, Ronald & Kierzkowski, Henryk, 1983. "International Trade and Human Capital: A Simple General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 957-978, December.
    4. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    6. Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2008. "The Skill Bias of World Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 927-960, July.
    7. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    8. Zhiqi Chen, 1992. "Long-Run Equilibria in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 923-943, November.
    9. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-1386, November.
    10. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 299-303, May.
    11. Mountford, Andrew, 1999. "Trade Dynamics and Endogenous Growth: An Overlapping-Generations Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 209-224, May.
    12. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    13. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 219-237, January.
    14. Falvey, Rod & Greenaway, David & Silva, Joana, 2010. "Trade liberalisation and human capital adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 230-239, July.
    15. Paul R. Krugman, 2008. "Trade and Wages, Reconsidered," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 103-154.
    16. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    17. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694.
    19. Gancia, Gino & Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "North-South trade and directed technical change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 276-295, December.
    20. Jaume Ventura, 1997. "Growth and Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 57-84.
    21. Ariel Burstein & Jonathan Vogel, 2011. "Factor Prices and International Trade: A Unifying Perspective," NBER Working Papers 16904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1970. "Factor Price Equalization in a Dynamic Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 456-488, May-June.
    24. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    25. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    26. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    27. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    28. Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2006. "Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and Factor Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 583-598, November.
    29. Stokey, Nancy L, 1996. "Free Trade, Factor Returns, and Factor Accumulation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 421-447, December.
    30. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
    31. Borsook, I., 1987. "Earnings, ability and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 281-295, May.
    32. Mountford, Andrew, 1998. "Trade, convergence and overtaking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 167-182, October.
    33. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Patterns of Skill Premia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 199-230.
    34. Baxter, Marianne, 1992. "Fiscal Policy, Specialization, and Trade in the Two-Sector Model: The Return of Ricardo?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 713-744, August.
    35. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2006. "The World Technology Frontier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 499-522, June.
    36. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    37. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    38. P. K. Bardhan, 1966. "On Factor Accumulation and the Pattern of International Specialisation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 33(1), pages 39-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auer, Raphael A., 2015. "Human capital and the dynamic effects of trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 107-118.
    2. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    3. Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2006. "Demographics in Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Models: Overlapping Generations Versus Infinitely Lived Consumers," NBER Working Papers 12566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva, 2019. "Trade liberalization and wage inequality: new insights from a dynamic trade model with heterogeneous firms and comparative advantage," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 407-457, August.
    5. Lorenzo Caliendo, 2010. "On the Dynamics of the Hecksher-Ohlin Theory," Working Papers 2010-011, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    6. Mariya Mileva & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "Two-Country Dynamic Model of Trade with Heterogeneous Firms and Comparative Advantage. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 12," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46859, February.
    7. Gries, T. & Grundmann, R. & Palnau, I. & Redlin, M., 2015. "Does technological change drive inclusive industrialization? : A review of major concepts and findings," MERIT Working Papers 2015-044, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2009. "Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 66-82, February.
    9. Sergi Basco & Martí Mestieri, 2019. "The world income distribution: the effects of international unbundling of production," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 189-221, June.
    10. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    11. Partha Sen & Koji Shimomura, 2017. "Convergence and Overtaking in a Dynamic two Country Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 107-124, February.
    12. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Neoclassical Growth and Commodity Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 707-736, July.
    13. Gino Gancia, 2012. "Globalization, technology and inequality," Economics Working Papers 1363, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2012.
    14. Maria Dolores Guillo & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, 2015. "Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin Model with Land," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 725-734, August.
    15. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    16. Eric W. Bond & Kathleen Trask & Ping Wang, 2003. "Factor Accumulation and Trade: Dynamic Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Physical and Human Capital," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1041-1060, August.
    17. Gancia, Gino & Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "North-South trade and directed technical change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 276-295, December.
    18. Sen, Partha, 2015. "Uncertain lifetimes and convergence in a two-country Heckscher–Ohlin model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-20.
    19. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
    20. Paolo Epifani, 2003. "Trade liberalization, Firm Performances and Labor Market Outcomes in the Developing World, what Can We Learn From Micro-Level Data?," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 455-486.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://szgerzensee.ch/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.