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Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior

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Author Info
Ray C. Fair () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper tests for the existence of expectational effects in very disaggregate price equations. Price equations are estimated using monthly data for each of 40 products. The dynamic specification of the equations is also tested, including whether the equations should be specified in level form or in change form. Two expectational hypotheses are used, one in which expectations of the aggregate price level and one in which expectations are rational. Under the first hypothesis the lag length is estimated along with the other parameters, and under the second hypothesis the lead length is estimated along with the other parameters. The results strongly support the hypothesis that aggregate price expectations affect individual pricing decisions. The results do not discriminate very well between the level and change forms of the price equation, although there is a slight edge for the level form. The lag and lead lengths are not estimated precisely, but in most cases the lag length is less than 30 months and the lead length is less than 5 months.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 923.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1989
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Publication status: Published in Review of Economics and Statistics (1993), 75(1): 8-18
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:923

Note: CFP 849.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; expectations; price equations; price level;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," NBER Technical Working Papers 0079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," NBER Technical Working Papers 0079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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