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How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

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    Abstract

    An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

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    File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d19a/d1943.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1943.

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    Length: 24 pages
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    Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1943

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    Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

    Related research

    Keywords: Central Bank; Uncertainty; Stochastic Simulation;

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    1. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
    2. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1989. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 921, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
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