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How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?

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    Abstract

    In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.

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    File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d18b/d1864.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1864.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1864

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    Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

    Related research

    Keywords: Forecasting uncertainty; Fed policy;

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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How to report Fed uncertainty
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-18 14:25:00
    2. [??]?????????????????
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-07-24 07:00:00

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