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Venture Capital and Sequential Investments

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Author Info
Dirk Bergemann () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Ulrich Hege (Dept of Finance and Economics, HEC School of Management)
Liang Peng (Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado)

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Abstract

We present a dynamic model of venture capital financing, described as a sequential in­vestment problem with uncertain outcome. Each venture has a critical, but unknown threshold beyond which it cannot progress. If the threshold is reached before the completion of the project, then the project fails, otherwise it succeeds. The investors decide sequentially about the speed of the investment and the optimal path of staged investments. We derive the dynamically optimal funding policy in response to the arrival of information during the development of the venture. We develop three types of predictions from our theoretical model and test these predictions in a large sample of venture capital investments in the U.S. for the period of 1987-2002. First, the investment flow starts low if the failure risk is high and accelerates as the projects mature. Second, the investment flow reacts positively to information that arrives while the project is developed. We find that the investment decisions are more sensitive to the information received during the development than to the information held prior to the project launch. Third, investors distribute their investments over more funding rounds if the failure risk is larger.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1682R.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision: Mar 2009
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1682r

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Venture capital; Sequential investment; Stage financing; Intertemporal returns;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gompers, Paul & Kovner, Anna & Lerner, Josh & Scharfstein, David, 2008. "Venture capital investment cycles: The impact of public markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boyan Jovanovic & Balà zs Szentes, 2007. "On the Return to Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 12874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2008. "The Investment Behavior of Buyout Funds: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Neher, Darwin V, 1999. "Staged Financing: An Agency Perspective," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 255-74, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dirk Bergemann & Ulrigh Hege, 2005. "The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(4), pages 719-752, Winter.
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  7. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Stromberg, 2003. "Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(2), pages 281-315, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Inderst, Roman & Muller, Holger M., 2004. "The effect of capital market characteristics on the value of start-up firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 319-356, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gompers, Paul A, 1995. " Optimal Investment, Monitoring, and the Staging of Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1461-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Claudio Michelacci & Javier Suarez, 2004. "Business Creation and the Stock Market," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 459-481, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2006. "Estimating House Price Indexes in the Presence of Seller Reservation Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2004. "Venture Capital Finance: A Security Design Approach," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 75-108. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Carsten Bienz & Julia Hirsch, 2006. "The Dynamics of Venture Capital Contracts," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Johannes Horner & Larry Samuelson, 2009. "Incentives for Experimenting Agents," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1726, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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