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Descriptive Econometrics for Nonstationary Time Series with Empirical Illustrations

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Author Info
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Recent work by the author on methods of spatial density analysis for time series data with stochastic trends is reviewed and extended. The methods are illustrated in some empirical applications and simulations. The empirical applications include macroeconomic data on inflation, financial data on exchange rates and political opinion poll data. It is shown how the methods can be used to measure empirical hazard rates for inflation and deflation. Empirical estimates based on historical US data over the last 60 years indicate that the predominant inflation risks are at low levels (2-6%) and low two-digit levels (10-12%), and that there is also a significant risk of deflation around the -1% level.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d12a/d1219.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1219.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in of Applied Econometrics (2001), 16(3): 389-413
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1219

Note: CFP 1023.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Descriptive statistics; hazard rate; kernel estimate; soujourn time; spatial density; spatial moments; unit root nonstationarity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Nonstationary Density Estimation and Kernel Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1181, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Espasa, Antoni & Sargan, J Denis, 1977. "The Spectral Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Systems with Lagged Endogenous Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(3), pages 583-605, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-44, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Qiying Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Asymptotic Theory for Local Time Density Estimation and Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1594, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ioannis Kasparis & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2009. "Dynamic Misspecification in Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1700, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Trending Time Series and Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present and Future Challenges," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1264, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2008. "Local Limit Theory and Spurious Nonparametric Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1654, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sainan Jin & Ling Hu, 2005. "Nonstationary Discrete Choice: A Corrigendum and Addendum," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1516, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Seung Hyun Hong & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Relations with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1541, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  8. B.P.M. McCabe & G.M. Martin & A.R. Tremayne, 2003. "Persistence and Nonstationary Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 16/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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