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Trending Time Series and Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present and Future Challenges

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Abstract

Some challenges for econometric research on trending time are discussed in relation to some perceived needs of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy making.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d12b/d1264.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1264.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics (2001), 100(1): 21-26
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1264

Note: CFP 914.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Keywords: Breaks; growth; policy intervention; production; trend mechanisms; unit roots;

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References

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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  2. Galor, Oded & Zeira, Joseph, 1988. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 51644, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 1989.
  3. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "New unit root asymptotics in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 323-353, December.
  4. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Interactions-based models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 54, pages 3297-3380 Elsevier.
  5. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Descriptive Econometrics for Nonstationary Time Series with Empirical Illustrations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1219, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1999. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1223, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  10. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1999. "Empirical Limits for Time Series Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1220, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Robert M. Solow, 2000. "Toward a Macroeconomics of the Medium Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, Winter.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Engelbrecht, Hans-Jurgen, 2001. "Statistics for the information age," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 339-349, September.
  2. David O'Toole, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasts and Stochastic Trend Breaks," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 7.
  3. Yonghui Zhang & Liangjun Su & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2011. "Testing for Common Trends in Semiparametric Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1832, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Jia Chen & Jiti Gao & Degui Li, 2010. "Semiparametric Trending Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence," School of Economics Working Papers 2010-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  5. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
  6. Cai, Zongwu, 2003. "Trending Time-Varying Coefficient Models With Serially Correlated Errors," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  7. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2010. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 289, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  8. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
  9. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
  10. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
  11. repec:wyi:wpaper:002009 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Javier Hidalgo & Jungyoon Lee, 2014. "A Cusum Test of Common Trends in Large Heterogeneous Panels," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2014/576, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.

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