Was there a "Greenspan conundrum" in the Euro Area ?
AbstractThis paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use a Near-Cointegrated VAR-like approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more accurate estimates of the term premium incorporated into the Eurozone’s sovereign yield curve. I then look for notable episodes of the monetary cycle where long yields display a puzzling behavior vis-à-vis the short rate in contrast with the Expectation Hypothesis. The Euro-area bond market appears to have gone through its own "Greenspan conundrum". At least three "conundra" episodes can be singled out in the Eurozone between January 1999 and August 2008. The term premium substantially contributed to these odd phenomena.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2013-07.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Affine term structure models; Unspanned macro risks; Monetary policy; Expectation Hypothesis; Term Premium; Macroeconomy;
Other versions of this item:
- Lamé, Gildas, 2013. "Was there a "Greenspan conundrum" in the Euro area ?," MPRA Paper 45870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- G. Lamé, 2013. "Was there a « Greenspan Conundrum » in the Euro area?," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-10, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2013-06-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-MON-2013-06-04 (Monetary Economics)
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