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Disentangling Treatment Effects of Polish Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Matched Samples

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  • Kluve, Jochen
  • Lehmann, Hartmut
  • Schmidt, Christoph M

Abstract

This Paper estimates causal effects of two Polish active labour market policies – Training and Intervention Works – on employment probabilities. Utilizing data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey we discuss three stages of an appropriately designed exact matching procedure. The approach is illustrated using the estimated propensity score as a summary measure of balance. Distributions of pre-treatment labour market status histories show the decisive relevance of employment indicators as determinants of programme participation – a point often ignored in evaluation research. We implement a conditional difference-in-differences estimator of treatment effects based on these individual trinomial sequences of pre-treatment labour market status. Our findings suggest that Training raises employment probability, while Intervention Works seems to lead to a negative treatment effect for men. Furthermore, we find that appropriate subdivision of the matched sample for conditional treatment effect estimation can add considerable insight to the interpretation of results.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3298.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3298

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Keywords: active labour market policy; determinants of programme participation; exact matching; propensity score; transition;

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References

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  1. Puhani, Patrick A, 1998. "Advantage Through Training? A Microeconometric Evaluation of the Employment Effects of Active Labour Market Programmes in Poland," CEPR Discussion Papers 2000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "Knowing What Works: The Case for Rigorous Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 77, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 93, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
  5. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier.
  6. Kluve, Jochen & Lehmann, Hartmut & Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "Active Labor Market Policies in Poland: Human Capital Enhancement, Stigmatization or Benefit Churning," IZA Discussion Papers 30, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Dehejia, R.H. & Wahba, S., 1998. "Propensity Score Matching Methods for Non-Experimental Causal Studies," Discussion Papers 1998_02, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  9. Schmidt, Christoph M. & Augurzky, Boris, 2001. "The Propensity Score: A Means to An End," IZA Discussion Papers 271, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
  11. Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1984. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," NBER Working Papers 1489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A, 1999. "The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme. Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 313-48, July.
  13. Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
  14. Marek GÕra & Christoph M. Schmidt, 1998. "Long-term unemployment, unemployment benefits and social assistance: The Polish experience," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1/2), pages 55-85.
  15. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
  16. Joshua D. Angrist & Jinyong Hahn, 1999. "When to Control for Covariates? Panel-Asymptotic Results for Estimates of Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Jinyong Hahn, 1998. "On the Role of the Propensity Score in Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 315-332, March.
  18. repec:fth:coluec:9899-01 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Núria Rodríguez-Planas & Jacob Benus, 2007. "Evaluating Active Labor Markets in Romania," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 699.07, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  2. Takis Venetoklis, 2004. "An Evaluation of Wage Subsidy Programs to SMEs Utilising Propensity Score Matching," Research Reports 106, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  3. Nuria Rodriguez-Planas† & Jacob Benus, 2007. "Evaluative Active Labor Market Programmes in Romania," Working Papers 2007-31, FEDEA.
  4. Jeff Borland & Yi-Ping Tseng, 2004. "Does 'Work for the Dole' Work?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  5. Takis Venetoklis, 2002. "Public Policy Evaluation: Introduction to Quantitative Methodologies," Research Reports 90, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  6. Núria Rodríguez-Planas, 2007. "What Works Best For Getting the Unemployed Back to Work: Employment Services or Small-Business Assistance Programs? Evidence from Romania," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 712.07, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  7. Betcherman, Gordon & Olivas, Karina & Dar, Amit, 2004. "Impacts of active labor market programs : new evidence from evaluations with particular attention to developing and transition countries," Social Protection Discussion Papers 29142, The World Bank.
  8. Maciej Bukowski & Piotr Lewandowski, 2005. "Transitions from unemployment in Poland: a multinomial logit analysis," Labor and Demography 0511008, EconWPA, revised 07 Dec 2005.
  9. Jeff Borland & Yi-Ping Tseng, 2003. "How Do Administrative Arrangements Affect Exit from Unemployment Payments? The Case of the Job Seeker Diary in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  10. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Miguel Malo & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, 2008. "The Role of Temporary Help Agency Employment on Temp-to-Perm Transitions," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 138-161, June.

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