IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/17998.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Pástor, LuboÅ¡
  • Fabo, Brian
  • Jancokova, Martina
  • Kempf, Elisabeth

Abstract

Fabo, Jancokova, Kempf, and Pastor (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions are replaced by regressions that downweight outliers. We examine those outliers and find no reason to downweight them. Most of them represent estimates from influential central bank papers published in respectable academic journals. For example, among the five papers finding the largest peak effect of QE on output, all five are published in high-quality journals (Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, and Applied Economics Letters), and their average number of citations is well over 200. Moreover, we show that these papers have supported policy communication by the world's leading central banks and shaped the public perception of the effectiveness of QE. New evidence based on quantile regressions further supports the results in Fabo et al. (2021).

Suggested Citation

  • Pástor, LuboÅ¡ & Fabo, Brian & Jancokova, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth, 2023. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 17998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP17998
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 47-82, February.
    2. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    4. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    5. Daniele Fanelli, 2010. "“Positive” Results Increase Down the Hierarchy of the Sciences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-10, April.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    9. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2011. "The estimated macroeconomic effects of the Federal Reserve's large-scale Treasury purchase program," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
    11. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    12. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
    14. James Cloyne & Ryland Thomas & Alex Tuckett & Samuel Wills, 2015. "An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 51-82, September.
    15. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Program," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 79-94, February.
    16. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. . . : A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 5-53, January.
    17. Burlon, Lorenzo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of an open-ended asset purchase programme," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1144-1159.
    18. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    19. Hiona Balfoussia & Heather D. Gibson, 2016. "Financial conditions and economic activity: the potential impact of the targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 449-456, April.
    20. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    21. Christophe Cahn & Julien Matheron & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1443-1482, October.
    22. Kjell Hausken & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Quantitative Easing and Its Impact in the US, Japan, the UK and Europe," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-9646-5, October.
    23. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    24. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    25. Michael Kühl, 2018. "The Effects of Government Bond Purchases on Leverage Constraints of Banks and Non-Financial Firms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 93-161, September.
    26. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2018. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 545-563, March.
    27. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
    28. Bridges, Jonathan & Thomas, Ryland, 2012. "The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic," Bank of England working papers 442, Bank of England.
    29. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2021. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," Working papers 829, Banque de France.
    3. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    4. Di Casola, Paola & Stockhammar, Pär, 2021. "When domestic and foreign QE overlap: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 404, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    6. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    7. Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Niki Papadopoulou, 2020. "Balance Sheet Policies in a Large Currency Union: A Primer on ECB Non-Standard Measures since 2014," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 171-230.
    8. Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Νikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy effects on output and inflation: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 295-305.
    9. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2019. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 831-858, June.
    10. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2020. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_193, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    11. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki X., 2020. "On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 502-533.
    13. Harrison, Richard, 2017. "Optimal quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 678, Bank of England.
    14. Gan‐Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies in a commodity‐exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4627-4654, October.
    15. Lewis, Vivien & Roth, Markus, 2019. "The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 40-52.
    16. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    17. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    18. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2022. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 527-597, June.
    20. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 337-383, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic research;

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.