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Evaluating the macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies

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  • Sarah Mouabbi
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

Abstract

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policies using a DSGE model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid-2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year-on-year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1-2017Q2, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2019. "Evaluating the macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies," Working papers 708, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:708
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; shadow policy rate; DSGE model; euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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