IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/11501.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Are Uncertainty Shocks?

Author

Listed:
  • Veldkamp, Laura
  • Kozeniauskas, Nicholas
  • Orlik, Anna

Abstract

One of the primary innovations in modern business cycle research is the idea that uncertainty shocks drive aggregate fluctuations. But changes in stock prices (VIX), disagreement among macro forecasters, and the cross-sectional dispersion in firms' earnings, while all used to measure uncertainty, are not the same, either conceptually or statistically. Are these really measuring the same phenomenon and not just a collection of counter-cyclical second moments? If so, what is this shock that has such diverse impacts on the economy? Statistically, there is some rationale for naming all uncertainty shocks. There exists a subset of commonly-used uncertainty measures that comove significantly, above and beyond what the cycle alone could explain. Therefore, we explore a mechanism that generates micro dispersion (cross-sectional variance of firm-level outcomes), higher-order uncertainty (disagreement) and macro uncertainty (uncertainty about macro outcomes) from a change in macro volatility. The mechanism succeeds quantitatively, causing uncertainty measures to covary, just as they do in the data. If we want to continue the practice of naming these changes all \uncertainty shocks," these results provide guidance about what such a shock might actually entail.

Suggested Citation

  • Veldkamp, Laura & Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna, 2016. "What Are Uncertainty Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP11501
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    3. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    4. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2368-2399, August.
    5. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, March.
    6. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Endogenous information acquisition and countercyclical uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 601-642.
    7. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    8. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    9. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2014. "Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2320-2367, August.
    10. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan," 2014 Meeting Papers 275, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ryan A. Decker & Pablo N. D'Erasmo & Hernan Moscoso Boedo, 2016. "Market Exposure and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 148-198, January.
    12. Edouard Schaal, 2011. "Uncertainty, Productivity and Unemployment in the Great Depression," 2011 Meeting Papers 1450, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Sydney Ludvigson, 2016. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response," 2016 Meeting Papers 183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    16. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2010. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 537-541, May.
    17. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, August.
    18. Pablo N D’Erasmo & Hernan J Moscoso-Boedo, 2011. "Intangibles and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," Virginia Economics Online Papers 400, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Boragan Aruoba & Dun Jia & Felipe Saffie, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty," 2018 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    4. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 112-127.
    5. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2019. "Endogenous second moments: A unified approach to fluctuations in risk, dispersion, and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 625-660.
    6. Marco DiMaggio & Amir Kermani & Rodney Ramcharan & Edison Yu, 2017. "Household Credit and Local Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 17-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Kozeniauskas & Anna Orlik & Laura Veldkamp, 2016. "The Common Origin of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 22384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik & Nicholas Kozeniauskas, 2015. "Black Swans and the Many Shades of Uncertainty," 2015 Meeting Papers 677, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 2011-2071.
    5. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2016. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan," Working Papers 16-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers e071, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    7. Hikaru Saijo, 2014. "The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles," Working Papers e067, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    8. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    9. Anna Orlik & Laura Veldkamp, 2014. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans," NBER Working Papers 20445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2013. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 391, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan," 2014 Meeting Papers 275, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Laura Veldkamp, 2022. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    14. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
    16. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2017. "Uncertainty Traps," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1641-1692.
    17. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    19. Becard, Yvan & Gauthier, David, 2023. "Banks, nonbanks, and business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Tian, Can, 2022. "Learning and firm dynamics in a stochastic equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Disaster risk; Disagreement; Asymmetric information; Business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.