The asymmetric commodity inventory effect on the optimal hedge ratio
AbstractHedging strategies for commodity prices largely rely on dynamic models to compute optimal hedge ratios. This paper illustrates the importance of considering the commodity inventory effect (effect by which the commodity price volatility increases more after a positive shock than after a negative shock of the same magnitude) in modelling the variance-covariance dynamics. We show by in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts that a commodity price index portfolio optimized by an asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model outperforms the symmetric BEKK, static (OLS) or naïve models. Robustness checks on a set of commodities and by an alternative mean-variance optimization framework confirm the relevance of taking into account the inventory effect in commodity hedging strategies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2012020.
Date of creation: 09 May 2012
Date of revision:
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BEKK; commodity; asymmetries; hedging; inventory effect;
Other versions of this item:
- Jean‐Francois Carpantier & Besik Samkharadze, 2013. "The Asymmetric Commodity Inventory Effect on the Optimal Hedge Ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 868-888, 09.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Global Commodity Market
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