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Effects of the uncertainty about global economic recovery on energy transition and CO2 price

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  • DURAND-LASSERVE, Olivier

    ()
    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; IFP Energies nouvelles, F-92852 Rueil-Malmaison, France)

  • PIERRU, Axel

    ()
    (IFP Energies nouvelles, Economics Department, F-92852 Rueil-Malmaison, France)

  • SMEERS, Yves

    ()
    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for economic growth. Each scenario is characterized by the likelihood of a rapid global economic recovery. More precisely, during each decade, global economy may - with a given probability - shift from the EIA's (2010) low-economic-growth path to the EIA's (2010) high-economic-growth path. The climate policy considered corresponds in the medium term to the commitments announced after the Copenhagen conference, and in the long term to a reduction of 25% in global energy-related CO2 emissions (with respect to 2005). For the prices of CO2 and electricity, as well as for the implementation of CCS, the branches of the resulting stochastic trajectories appear to be heavily influenced by agents' initial expectations of future economic growth and by the economic growth actually realized. Thus, in 2040, the global price of CO2 may range from $21 (when an initially-anticipated economic recovery never occurs) to $128 (in case of non-anticipated rapid economic recovery). In addition, we show that within each region, the model internalizes the constraints limiting the expansion of each power-generation technology through the price paid by the power utility for the acquisition of new production capacity. As a result, in China, the curves of endogenous investment costs for onshore and offshore wind are all bubble-shaped centered on 2025, a date which corresponds to the establishment of a global CO2 cap-and-trade market in the model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2011028.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2011028

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    Related research

    Keywords: energy transition; CO2; economic growth; uncertainty; investment cost; MERGE;

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    References

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    1. Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2007. "Uncertain R&D, Backstop Technology and GHGs Stabilization," Working Papers 2007.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Carlo Carraro & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2008. "Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost?," Working Papers 2008_27, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2010. "Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5108-5122, September.
    4. Jonathan Kohler, Michael Grubb, David Popp and Ottmar Edenhofer , 2006. "The Transition to Endogenous Technical Change in Climate-Economy Models: A Technical Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 17-56.
    5. Rafaj, Peter & Kypreos, Socrates, 2007. "Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 828-843, February.
    6. Javier Carrillo, 2008. "System Transition Concepts and Framework for Analysing Energy System Research and Governance," Working Papers Economia wp08-31, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment.
    7. Scott, Michael J. & Sands, Ronald D. & Edmonds, Jae & Liebetrau, Albert M. & Engel, David W., 1999. "Uncertainty in integrated assessment models: modeling with MiniCAM 1.0," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(14), pages 855-879, December.
    8. Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & McFarland, James R. & Paltsev, Sergey, 2006. "Technology and technical change in the MIT EPPA model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 610-631, November.
    9. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
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