Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition : a general equilibrium approach
AbstractThe persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current invest- ment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a ”hard cap” or a ”soft cap”. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO2 emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO2 emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2010027.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-10-02 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2010-10-02 (Environmental Economics)
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