Forecasting and Policy Analysis with a Dynamic CGE Model of Australia
AbstractThe main ideas in this paper are: (a) that CGE models can be used in forecasting; and (b) that forecasts matter for policy analysis. We demonstrate these ideas by describing an application of MONASH, a dynamic CGE model of Australia, to the Australian motor vehicle industry over the period 1987 to 2016. The key to generating believable forecasts is to use detailed information available from expert groups specializing in the analysis of different aspects of the economy. In MONASH we incorporate forecasts by specialists: on the domestic macro economy; on Australian economic policy; on world commodity markets; on international tourism; on production technologies; and on consumer preferences. We have found that CGE forecasts incorporating such specialist information are readily saleable to public and private organizations concerned with investment, employment, training and education issues. This is partly because the economy-wide consistency guaranteed by the CGE approach enables users of economic intelligence to see the disparate forecasts dealing with different parts and aspects of the economy within an integrated perspective. Over the last thirty five years, CGE models have been used almost exclusively as aids to "what if" (usually policy) analysis. In almost all cases it has been assumed that the effects of the shock under consideration are independent of the future path of the economy. Thus, for "what if" analysis, a common implicit view is that realistic basecase forecasts are unnecessary. Contrary to this view, we find that "what if" answers depend significantly on the basecase forecasts. This is not surprising when we are concerned with unemployment and other adjustment costs. However, we find that basecase forecasts are critical even when our concern is the long-run welfare implications of a policy change. For example, we find that the simulated long-run effects of a tariff cut on imported cars are strongly influenced by the basecase forecast of the rate of technical progress in the car industry relative to that in other industries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number op-90.
Date of creation: Jun 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 11th Floor, Menzies Building, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria, 3168
Phone: 03 9905 2398
Fax: 03 9905 2426
Web page: http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
CGE model; forecasting; policy analysis; MONASH model; automobile industry; adjustment costs;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
- Eduardo A. Haddad & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2004.
"Transportation Costs, Increasing Returns and Regional growth: An Interregional CGE Analysis,"
Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia
315, Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia.
- Eduardo Haddad & Geoffrey Hewings, 2004. "Transportation Costs, Increasing Returns and Regional Growth: An Interregional CGE Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa04p461, European Regional Science Association.
- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000.
"Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 1999. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-73, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Wittwer, Glyn, 2000. "The Sensitivity Of Wine Industry Outcomes To Model Assumptions In Gst Scenarios," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123742, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Edson Paulo Domingues & Kênia Barreiro de Souza, 2012. "The Welfare Impacts of Changes in the Brazilian Domestic Work Market," Working Papers 96, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
- Graafland, Johan J. & de Mooij, Ruud A., 1999. "Fiscal policy and the labour market: An AGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-219, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.