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São Francisco River Transposition Project: Socio‐economic impacts in Brazilian Northeast semi‐arid region

Author

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  • Edson Ramos de Medeiros
  • Terciane Sabadini Carvalho
  • Kênia Barreiro de Souza

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the socio‐economic impacts of the São Francisco River Integration Project (PISF). In order to do that, a dynamic inter‐regional computable general equilibrium model is used, called TERM‐NEPISF. An increase in investments and in the total productivity of factors in the agricultural sectors was simulated. In general, the results reveal that greater investment and increase productivity has positive effects on GDP, employment, and household consumption, with rural workers and lower‐income households benefited the most. Furthermore, the results show a negative variation of the Gini index for almost all regions, expressing reduction of regional disparities. El objetivo de este estudio es evaluar los impactos socioeconómicos del Proyecto de Integración del Río São Francisco (PISF). Para ello, se empleó un modelo dinámico interregional de equilibrio general computable, denominado TERM‐NEPISF. Se simuló un aumento de las inversiones y de la productividad total de los factores en los sectores agrícolas. En general, los resultados revelan que una mayor inversión y un aumento de la productividad tienen efectos positivos sobre el PIB, el empleo y el consumo de los hogares, y que los más beneficiados serían los trabajadores rurales y los hogares con menores ingresos. Además, los resultados muestran una variación negativa del índice de Gini para casi todas las regiones, lo que indica la reducción de las disparidades regionales. 本稿では、TERM‐NEPISFと呼ばれる地域間での計算可能な動学的一般均衡モデルを用いて、São Francisco River Integration Project(PISF:サン・フランシスコ川統合プロジェクト)の社会経済的影響を評価する。農業部門の因子における投資の増加との総生産性の向上をシミュレーションした。概して、結果から、投資の拡大と生産性の向上はGDP、雇用、家計消費にプラスの効果をもたらし、農村労働者と低所得世帯が最も恩恵を受けたことが明らかになった。また、結果からほぼ全ての地域でジニ指数のマイナスの変化が示され、地域間格差が縮小していると見られる。

Suggested Citation

  • Edson Ramos de Medeiros & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Kênia Barreiro de Souza, 2022. "São Francisco River Transposition Project: Socio‐economic impacts in Brazilian Northeast semi‐arid region," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(6), pages 1441-1468, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:101:y:2022:i:6:p:1441-1468
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morrison, Catherine J & Schwartz, Amy Ellen, 1996. "State Infrastructure and Productive Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1095-1111, December.
    2. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 1998. "Forecasting and Policy Analysis with a Dynamic CGE Model of Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-90, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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