Using a highly disaggregated multi-regional single-country model to analyse the impacts of the 2002-03 drought on Australia
AbstractTERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottom-up" CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disag-gregated regional data while providing a quick solution to simulations. This makes it a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks that may be region-specific. We include some details of how we prepared the TERM database, using a national input-output table, together with regional data showing output (for agriculture) and employment (in other sectors) for each of 144 sectors and 57 regions [the Australian statistical divisions]. Using a 38-sector, 45-region aggregation of the model, we simulate the short-run effects of the Australian drought of 2002-03, which was the most widespread for 20 years. The effects on some statistical divisions are extreme, with income losses of up to 20 per cent. Despite the relatively small share of agriculture in Australian GDP, the drought reduces GDP by 1.6 per cent, and contributes to a decline in unemployment and to a worsening of the balance of trade.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-141.
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol 27/3 2005, pp. 285-308.
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
- N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer, 2003. "MMRF-GREEN: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy, Based on the MMR and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-140, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Pearson, K. R., 1988.
"Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models,"
Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October.
- K.R. Pearson, 1986. "Automating the Computation of Solutions of Large Economic Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-27, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Naqvi, Farzana & Peter, Matthew W, 1996. "A Multiregional, Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(66), pages 94-113, June.
- Wittwer, Glyn & McKirdy, Simon & Wilson, Ryan, 2005. "Regional economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(1), March.
- Wittwer, Glyn & Griffith, Marnie, 2010. "Closing the factory doors until better times: CGE modelling of drought using a theory of excess capacity," 2010 Conference (54th), February 10-12, 2010, Adelaide, Australia 59263, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Horridge, Mark & Wittwer, Glyn, 2008. "SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 628-634, December.
- Productivity Commission, 2008. "Modelling Economy-wide Effects of Future Automotive Assistance," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 30.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.