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The Impacts of Higher Energy Prices on Indonesia’s and West Java’s Economies using INDOTERM, a Multiregional Model of Indonesia

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Author Info

  • Mark Horridge

    ()
    (Monash University)

  • Glyn Wittwer

    ()
    (Monash University)

Abstract

Indonesia’s national and regional/local policy makers are becoming increasingly concerned with disparities between regions. Aggregate incomes and expenditures in one region may change proportionally more than national changes. This paper contains a technical summary of the structure and special features of INDOTERM model, a member of the TERM family (TERM = The Enormous Regional Model). It treats West Java and the rest of Indonesia as separate economies. We discuss the data required to prepare a version of INDOTERM that represents all the provinces of Indonesia. Finally, we present a long-run simulation of the impacts of the recent hike in global energy prices on the Indonesian economy combined with possible depletion of Indonesia’s crude oil supplies. The special features for future development of INDOTERM are multiple household incomes and expenditures and a “top-down” extension representing sub-provincial municipalities. Nationally, Indonesia’s real income losses due to resource depletion are more than compensated by the sharp increase in the terms of trade arising from the increase in global demand for energy. West Java and the rest of Indonesia fare similarly, as a large proportion of the composite region consists of the remaining provinces of Java which have a similar economic structure to West Java. The relatively sparsely populated outer islands that are relatively rich in mineral resources are not represented separately. Using a “top-down” extension of West Java’s 25 municipalities and districts in INDOTERM, the simulation shows that Kabupaten Indramayu fares best. This local region also loses from the decline in crude oil productivity, and indeed the output loss more than outweighs the increase in natural gas production for this effect. But it gains substantially from the energy price hikes: the increase in nominal income has a substantial positive effect on the municipality, with local industries, including trade and motor repairs experiencing output increases in excess of 40%. Overall, the municipality experiences a gain in factor income of 7.3%, whereas most other regions of West Java lose income in the scenario.

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File URL: http://lp3e.fe.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/200607.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 200607.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision: Aug 2006
Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:200607

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Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium; Regional CGE; Indonesia;

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References

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  1. Pearson, K. R., 1988. "Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October.
  2. Wittwer, Glyn & Vere, David T. & Jones, Randall E. & Griffith, Garry R., 2005. "Dynamic general equilibrium analysis of improved weed management in Australia's winter cropping systems," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(4), December.
  3. Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer, 2003. "MMRF-GREEN: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy, Based on the MMR and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-140, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Naqvi, Farzana & Peter, Matthew W, 1996. "A Multiregional, Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(66), pages 94-113, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Mark Horridge & Edimon Ginting & Priasto Aji, 2014. "Reducing disparity through a regions-focused development: A modeling approach of assessing the Indonesian MP3EI," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201402, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Feb 2014.

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