The Impacts of Higher Energy Prices on Indonesia’s and West Java’s Economies using INDOTERM, a Multiregional Model of Indonesia
AbstractIndonesia’s national and regional/local policy makers are becoming increasingly concerned with disparities between regions. Aggregate incomes and expenditures in one region may change proportionally more than national changes. This paper contains a technical summary of the structure and special features of INDOTERM model, a member of the TERM family (TERM = The Enormous Regional Model). It treats West Java and the rest of Indonesia as separate economies. We discuss the data required to prepare a version of INDOTERM that represents all the provinces of Indonesia. Finally, we present a long-run simulation of the impacts of the recent hike in global energy prices on the Indonesian economy combined with possible depletion of Indonesia’s crude oil supplies. The special features for future development of INDOTERM are multiple household incomes and expenditures and a “top-down” extension representing sub-provincial municipalities. Nationally, Indonesia’s real income losses due to resource depletion are more than compensated by the sharp increase in the terms of trade arising from the increase in global demand for energy. West Java and the rest of Indonesia fare similarly, as a large proportion of the composite region consists of the remaining provinces of Java which have a similar economic structure to West Java. The relatively sparsely populated outer islands that are relatively rich in mineral resources are not represented separately. Using a “top-down” extension of West Java’s 25 municipalities and districts in INDOTERM, the simulation shows that Kabupaten Indramayu fares best. This local region also loses from the decline in crude oil productivity, and indeed the output loss more than outweighs the increase in natural gas production for this effect. But it gains substantially from the energy price hikes: the increase in nominal income has a substantial positive effect on the municipality, with local industries, including trade and motor repairs experiencing output increases in excess of 40%. Overall, the municipality experiences a gain in factor income of 7.3%, whereas most other regions of West Java lose income in the scenario.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 200607.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision: Aug 2006
Computable General Equilibrium; Regional CGE; Indonesia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2007-03-10 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2007-03-10 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Naqvi, Farzana & Peter, Matthew W, 1996. "A Multiregional, Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(66), pages 94-113, June.
- Wittwer, Glyn & Vere, David T. & Jones, Randall E. & Griffith, Garry R., 2005. "Dynamic general equilibrium analysis of improved weed management in Australia's winter cropping systems," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(4), December.
- K.R. Pearson, 1986.
"Automating the Computation of Solutions of Large Economic Models,"
Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers
ip-27, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Pearson, K. R., 1988. "Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October.
- Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer, 2003. "MMRF-GREEN: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy, Based on the MMR and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-140, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Arief Anshory Yusuf & Mark Horridge & Edimon Ginting & Priasto Aji, 2014. "Reducing disparity through a regions-focused development: A modeling approach of assessing the Indonesian MP3EI," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201402, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Feb 2014.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Arief Anshory Yusuf).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.