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One Swallow Does not Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects

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  • Zacharias Maniadis
  • Fabio Tufano
  • John List

Abstract

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.

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Paper provided by David K. Levine in its series Levine's Working Paper Archive with number 786969000000000824.

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Date of creation: 22 Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000000824

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  1. Steven D. Levitt & John A. List, 2007. "Viewpoint: On the generalizability of lab behaviour to the field," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 347-370, May.
  2. Daniel Kahneman & Robert Sugden, 2005. "Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 161-181, 09.
  3. Maniadis, Zacharias & Levine, David K. & Fudenberg, Drew, 2012. "On the Robustness of Anchoring Effects in WTP and WTA Experiments," Scholarly Articles 11005333, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Uri Simonsohn & George Loewenstein, 2006. "Mistake #37: The Effect of Previously Encountered Prices on Current Housing Demand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 175-199, 01.
  5. Hunter, John E, 2001. " The Desperate Need for Replications," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 149-58, June.
  6. Oswald, Andrew J., 2006. "An Examination of the Reliability of Prestigious Scholarly Journals: Evidence and Implications for Decision-makers," IZA Discussion Papers 2070, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. repec:feb:artefa:0087 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  9. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 2009. "Anchoring Effects: Evidence from Art Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1027-39, June.
  10. Fabio Tufano, 2008. "Are ‘True’ Preferences Revealed in Repeated Markets? An Experimental Demonstration of Context-dependent Valuations," Discussion Papers, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham 2008-12, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
  11. Jonathan E. Alevy & Craig E. Landry & John A. List, 2011. "Field Experiments on Anchoring of Economic Valuations," Working Papers 2011-02, University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Economics.
  12. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Working Papers 17, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  13. B. Douglas Bernheim & Antonio Rangel, 2009. "Beyond Revealed Preference: Choice-Theoretic Foundations for Behavioral Welfare Economics-super-," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 124(1), pages 51-104, February.
  14. Dan Ariely & George Loewenstein & Drazen Prelec, 2003. ""Coherent Arbitrariness": Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 73-105, February.
  15. Linda Babcock & George Loewenstein, 1997. "Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 109-126, Winter.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John A. List, 2013. "On the Generalizability of Experimental Results in Economics: With a Response to Commentors," CESifo Working Paper Series 4543, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Teresa Briz & Andreas C. Drichoutis & Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr, 2014. "Detecting false positives in experimental auctions: A case study of projection bias in food consumption," Working Papers 2014-4, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
  3. Mitesh Kataria, 2014. "One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: A Comment on Zacharias Maniadis, Fabio Tufano, and John List," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 11(1), pages 4-10, January.
  4. Simon Rottke & Alexander Klos, 2013. "Savings and Consumption When Children Move Out," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 621, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  5. Holger Herz & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2013. "Market experience is a reference point in judgments of fairness," ECON - Working Papers, Department of Economics - University of Zurich 128, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  6. Kathryn Graddy & Lara Loewenstein & Jianping Mei & Mike Moses & Rachel Pownall, 2014. "Anchoring or Loss Aversion? Empirical Evidence from Art Auctions," Working Papers, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School 73, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  7. Greg Fischer & Dean Karlan & Margaret McConnell & Pia Raffler, 2014. "To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda," Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University 1041, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  8. Greg Fischer & Dean Karlan & Margaret McConnell & Pia Raffler, 2014. "To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda," NBER Working Papers 20170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John A. List, 2013. "On the Generalizability of Experimental Results in Economics: With A Response To Camerer," NBER Working Papers 19666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till, 2014. "Are groups 'less behavioral'? The case of anchoring," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 188, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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