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Recursive Intergenerational Utility in Global Climate Risk Modeling

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Author Info
Minh Ha-Duong
Nicolas Treich

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Abstract

This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to intertemporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to intertemporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty.

Ce texte étudie la différence entre l'aversion relative au risque et la résistance à la substitution intertemporelle dans la modélisation du risque climatique. Les préférences récursives stochastiques sont utilisées dans un modèle numérique stylisé utilisant les scénarios préliminaires GIEC 1998 sur l'économie et le climat. On montre qu'une aversion au risque plus forte conduit à augmenter le niveau optimal de taxation de l'énergie. Augmenter la résistance à la substitution intertemporelle a le même effet qu'augmenter le taux d'actualisation, tant que le risque n'est pas trop grand. Nous discutons les implications de ces résultats pour le débat sur l'actualisation et la durabilité sous incertitude.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 99s-40.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:99s-40

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Related research
Keywords: Recursive utility; risk; discounting; sustainability; climate; Utilité récursive; risque; actualisation; durabilité; climat;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General
H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

References listed on IDEAS
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  14. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 2004. "Risk aversion, intergenerational equity and climate change," Post-Print halshs-00000680_v2, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Howitt, Richard & Reynaud, Arnaud & Msangi, Siwa & Knapp, Keith, 2002. "Calibrated Stochastic Dynamic Models for Resource Management," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19620, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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