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Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

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Listed:
  • Mariia Belaia
  • Michael Funke
  • Nicole Glanemann

Abstract

Common integrated assessment models produce the counterintuitive result that higher risk aversion does not lead to stronger near-term abatement. This paper re-examines this result with a DICE model that is fully coupled with a thermohaline circulation model. It also features Epstein-Zin utility and uncertainty about climate sensitivity that resolves after some time. The simulations show that aversion to this tipping point risk has little effect. For climate sensitivity of realistic magnitude, a collapse of the circulation occurs in the distant future, which allows acting after learning. Furthermore, the anticipated damage costs are not sufficiently great to justify precautionary measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariia Belaia & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2014. "Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion," CESifo Working Paper Series 4930, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4930
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    4. Brock, W. & Xepapadeas, A., 2017. "Climate change policy under polar amplification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 93-112.
    5. Dominika Czyz & Karolina Safarzynska, 2023. "Catastrophic Damages and the Optimal Carbon Tax Under Loss Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(2), pages 303-340, June.
    6. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2019. "Social Cost of Carbon under stochastic tipping points: when does risk play a role?," Working Papers hal-02408904, HAL.
    8. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2021. "Social Cost of Carbon Under Stochastic Tipping Points," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 709-737, April.
    9. Sturla F. Kvamsdal & Ivan Belik & Arnt Ove Hopland & Yuanhao Li, 2021. "A Machine Learning Analysis of the Recent Environmental and Resource Economics Literature," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(1), pages 93-115, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integrated assessment modeling; risk aversion; Epstein-Zin utility; DICE; thermohaline circulation; climate sensitivity; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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