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Incomplete information, idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns

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  • Tony BERRADA

    (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Julien HUGONNIER

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We develop a q-theoretic model of investment under incomplete information that explains the link between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. When calibrated to match properties of the US business cycles as well as various firms and industry characteristics, the model generates a negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. We show that conditional on earning surprises, the link is positive after good news and negative after bad news. This result provides new insights on the nature of stock return predictability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 08-23.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0823

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Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
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Keywords: Idiosyncratic volatility; incomplete information; cross-section of returns; q-theory of investment;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Raman Uppal & Harjoat Bhamra, 2013. "Asset Prices with Heterogeneity in Preferences and Beliefs," 2013 Meeting Papers 1344, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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