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Inflation Compensation and Inflation Expectations in Chile

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Author Info
Mauricio Larraín
Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between inflation compensation and inflation expectations in Chile. First, we use the present discounted value methodology to decompose the difference between the unanticipated return of nominal and inflation-linked bonds into news about expected inflation and premiums. Second, we use a general equilibrium asset-pricing model to estimate a time-varying inflation risk premium. Our results show that inflation-expectations movements account for about only 25% of the relative returns, indicating that premiums are a very important source of changes in inflation compensation. We also show that the estimated inflation risk premium is time-varying but seems to be of negligible size, with average size and volatility very close to zero. l II) could be helpful on this task.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 421.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:421

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  1. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Martin D. D. Evans, 1998. "Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 187-218, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Martin D. D. Evans, 2003. "Real risk, inflation risk, and the term structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 345-389, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates under Uncertainty: The Fisher Theorem and the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 856-67, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Geert Bekaert & Min Wei & Yuhang Xing, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kandel, Shmuel & Ofer, Aharon R & Sarig, Oded, 1996. " Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 205-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jung, Woo S, 1986. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 333-46, January.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  10. Ayelet Balsam & Shmuel Kandel & Ori Levy, . "Ex-Ante Real Rates and Inflation Risk Premiums: A Consumption-Based Approach," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1992. "Interpreting the Movements in Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-429, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 1998. "Fisher's equation and the inflation risk premium in a simple endowment economy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 53-72. [Downloadable!]
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