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Term, Inflation and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia: A Unified Treatment

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  • Svensson, L.E.O.

Abstract

The paper reviews the theoretical foundations of the use of forward interest rates to infer expected future rates of interest, inflation, currency depreciation and inflation differentials. Forward rates are related to these expected future variables via combinations of term, inflation and foreign exchange risk premia. A unified derivation, discussion and comparison of these premia is provided under both general and specific assumptions, as well as some comments on empirical estimation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 548.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 1993
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:548

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Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
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Keywords: interest rate ; inflation;

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References

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  1. Fischer, Stanley, 1975. "The Demand for Index Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 509-34, June.
  2. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. " International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-84, June.
  3. Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates under Uncertainty: The Fisher Theorem and the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 856-67, October.
  4. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  5. Svensson, L.E., 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," Papers 475, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 4088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1989. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Roll, Richard & Solnik, Bruno, 1979. "On some parity conditions encountered frequently in international economics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 267-283.
  9. Paunio, Jouko J & Suvanto, Antti, 1977. "Changes in Price Expectations: Some Tests Using Data on Indexed and Non-Indexed Bonds," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(173), pages 37-45, February.
  10. repec:nbr:nberwo:2341 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  12. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier.
  13. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
  14. Ben-Shahar, H & Cukierman, A, 1973. "The Term-Structure of Interest Rates and Expectations of Price Increase and Devaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 567-75, June.
  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
  16. Stulz, Rene M, 1984. "Currency Preferences, Purchasing Power Risks, and the Determination of Exchange Rates in an Optimizing Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 302-16, August.
  17. Stulz, ReneM., 1981. "A model of international asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 383-406, December.
  18. Breeden, Douglas T., 1986. "Consumption, production, inflation and interest rates : A synthesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-39, May.
  19. André Farber & Eugene Fama, 1979. "Money, bonds and foreign exchange," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/11356, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 1103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Paul Soderlind & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," NBER Working Papers 5877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "The Magic of the Exchange Rate: Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap in Small and Large OPen Economies," Working Papers 072004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England.
  8. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
  9. Mahajan, Arvind & Wagner, Andrew J., 1999. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.

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