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The Mix Between Pay-as-you-go and Funded Pensions and What Demography Has to Do with it

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Author Info
Bernard M.S. van Praag ()
Pedro Cardoso

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Abstract

A model is presented that explains the mix between funded and unfunded pension systems. It turns out that total pension and the relative shares of the two systems may be explained and are determined by the population growth rate, technological growth, the time-preference discount rate, that relative risk aversion, the production function, and the political representation of the old. A fall in the population growth rate, even to negative values, will imply a reduction of the interest rate and an increase in the capital-output ratio. Whether the pension system will shift to more or less funding depends on the political weight of the elderly. If the elderly succeed in getting more weight in the political process if their population share increases, which is likely when the population shrinks, the accent on the PAYG- system will increase. A fall in the population growth rate will result in a reduction of average welfare. This reduction is more severe, the larger the political power of the elderly.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 865.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_865

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Related research
Keywords: old-age pensions; pay-as-you-go; intergenerational transfers; retirement benefits;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D64 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Altruism
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Feldstein, Martin S, 1985. "The Optimal Level of Social Security Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 303-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  8. Meijdam, Lex & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1996. "Aging and Political Decision Making on Public Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 141-58, May.
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