Target Losses in Case of a Euro Break-up
AbstractEvaluation of the financial costs of a Eurozone breakup depends critically on the interpretation of TARGET balances. While it has been argued that TARGET claims in the Eurozone can be written off without incurring any losses on the claimants as the value of fiat money is independent of the claims of a national central bank, the present paper shows that TARGET claims represent a shift of the ECB's refinancing credit to the crisis countries and thus a claim on the interest return from the commercial banks of these countries. If TARGET claims were to be written off, a loss of real wealth would occur to the amount of the present value of this interest return, which is exactly measured by the amount of the TARGET claims.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3968.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
currency union; balance of payments; Eurosystem; Target2;
Other versions of this item:
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
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CESifo Working Paper Series
3500, CESifo Group Munich.
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- Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1999. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seigniorage Wealth in EMU," NBER Working Papers 6072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Homburg, 2012. "Der neue Kurs der Europäischen Zentralbank," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 92(10), pages 673-677, October.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Die Target-Verluste im Fall des Auseinanderbrechens des Euro – Eine Replik auf De Grauwe und Ji," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 14-24, 01.
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