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Target Balances and the German Financial Account in Light of the European Balance-of-Payments Crisis

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

As shown in Sinn and Wollmershäuser (2012a), during the European balance-of-payments crisis, inter-governmental credit and Target credit granted by core-country central banks have replaced private international capital flows in financing the crisis countries' current account deficits, and even compensated for outright capital flight. This article offers a closer look at the components of this reversal of capital flows for the case of Germany. Its main finding is that most of the reversal materialized in the decline in foreign claims of German commercial banks. The inflow of foreign flight capital into Germany is small by comparison, with purchases of German government bonds increasing substantially, in particular by Spanish and Irish investors. Some foreign capital even left Germany. In net terms, over the years 2008, 2009 and 2011 foreigners withdrew credit they had previously provided to German financial institutions. However, in 2012, foreign credit flows to German financial institutions surged, while the flow of credit redemptions paid to German financial institutions came to a halt.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target Balances and the German Financial Account in Light of the European Balance-of-Payments Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4051, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Breakup," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(04), pages 51-58, December.
    2. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2010. "Rescuing Europe," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(SPECIALIS), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis [What drives Target2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197.
    6. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji,Yuemei, 2012. "What Germany should fear most is its own fear: An analysis of Target2 and current account imbalances," CEPS Papers 7280, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target-Salden und die deutsche Kapitalbilanz im Zeichen der europäischen Zahlungsbilanzkrise," ifo Working Paper Series 149, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    9. Rebecca McCaughrin & Mr. Simon T Gray & Alexandre Chailloux, 2008. "Central Bank Collateral Frameworks: Principles and Policies," IMF Working Papers 2008/222, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gylfi Zoega, 2017. "Nordic Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 411-428, December.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    3. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2020. "Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2014. "Austerity, Growth and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    7. Minenna, Marcello, 2022. "Target 2 determinants: The role of Balance of Payments imbalances in the long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Frank Westermann, 2014. "Discussion of "Target2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets"," IEER Working Papers 99, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary union; balance of payments; financial account; capital flight; Target;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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