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Interpreting TARGET2 balances

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Author Info

  • Stephen Cecchetti
  • Robert McCauley
  • Patrick McGuire

Abstract

The increase in the TARGET2 balance for the Bundesbank has led to a debate in Germany about the appropriate interpretation and policy response, if any. In this paper we review the evidence for the current account financing interpretation, and find it wanting in explaining the data in 2012. BIS international banking data, by contrast, point to the importance of TARGET2 balances as a symptom of a reduction by core European banks of credit previously extended to borrowers in peripheral Europe. These same data suggest that banks headquartered outside the euro area, particularly UK banks, boosted TARGET2 balances by hedging redenomination risk. As such, TARGET2 balances reflect not only concern regarding actual credit exposures but also potential currency exposures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 393.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:393

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Related research

Keywords: payment system; financial crisis; monetary policy; international lending;

References

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  1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Target Losses in Case of a Euro Break-up," CESifo Working Paper Series 3968, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Bindseil, Ulrich & Winkler, Adalbert, 2012. "Dual liquidity crises under alternative monetary frameworks: a financial accounts perspective," Working Paper Series 1478, European Central Bank.
  3. Raphael A. Auer, 2013. "What Drives Target2 Balances? Evidence From a Panel Analysis," Working Papers 13.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  4. Christian Fahrholz & Andreas Freytag, 2012. "Will TARGET2-Balances be Reduced again after an End of the Crisis?," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 30-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  5. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: The ECB’s rescue facility," Munich Reprints in Economics 19556, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  6. Gros, Daniel & Mayer, Thomas, 2012. "A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany’s Curse of Excess Savings," CEPS Papers 7229, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  7. Martin Handig & Robert Holzfeind & Clemens Jobst, 2012. "Understanding TARGET 2: The Eurosystem’s Euro Payment System from an Economic and Balance Sheet Perspective," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 81–91.
  8. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2012. "Determinants of TARGET2 imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 136, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Buiter, Willem H. & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2012. "Target2 Redux: The simple accountancy and slightly more complex economics of Bundesbank loss exposure through the Eurosystem," CEPR Discussion Papers 9211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. ECB AQR: Nervous Banks Make Banking Safer
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-05-15 19:07:35
  2. Update on Target2 Balances: Limited progress
    by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-06-12 12:31:17
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Cited by:
  1. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2013. "A descriptive analysis of the balance sheet and monetary policy of De Nederlandsche Bank: 1900-1998 and beyond," DNB Occasional Studies 1103, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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