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Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan

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Author Info

  • Biswa N. Bhattacharyay
  • Dennis Dlugosch
  • Benedikt Kolb
  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Irshat Mukhametov
  • Gernot Nerb

    ()

Abstract

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability, design appropriate remedial policy responses and undertake preventing actions to address vulnerabilities. The paper also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macro-prudential indicators. The system will be tested using a case study referring to Kazakhstan.The main novelty of the study lies in designing composite indicators for the real economy, the banking sector, the overall financial sector and finally the international economic environment of Kazakhstan and in studying the interaction of these composite indicators. An additional innovation is the relatively extensive use of qualitative business survey data to monitor vulnerability or crises; these surveys are data which until now have not been used much in this area of research.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-10/cesifo1_wp2832.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2832.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2832

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Related research

Keywords: banking crisis; leading indicators; Kazakhstan;

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References

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  1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  2. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Salvatore, Dominick, 1999. "Could the Financial Crisis in East Asia Have Been Predicted?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 341-347, May.
  6. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  7. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Stress Testing: A Review of Key Concepts," Research and Policy Notes 2004/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Mahinder Singh Gill & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund.
  9. E Philip Davis, 1999. "Financial data needs for macroprudential surveillance - What are the key indicators of risks to domestic financial stability?," Lectures, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 2, November.
  10. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T. Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Pierre-Richard Ag├łnor, 2003. "Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1089-1118, 08.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  14. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "How Did the World's Poorest Fare in the 1990s?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(3), pages 283-300, September.
  15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Financial Soundness Indicators," IMF Occasional Papers 212, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  18. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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