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Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan

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Author Info
Biswa N. Bhattacharyay ()
Dennis Dlugosch ()
Benedikt Kolb ()
Kajal Lahiri ()
Irshat Mukhametov ()
Gernot Nerb ()
Abstract

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability, design appropriate remedial policy responses and undertake preventing actions to address vulnerabilities. The paper also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macro-prudential indicators. The system will be tested using a case study referring to Kazakhstan. The main novelty of the study lies in designing composite indicators for the real economy, the banking sector, the overall financial sector and finally the international economic environment of Kazakhstan and in studying the interaction of these composite indicators. An additional innovation is the relatively extensive use of qualitative business survey data to monitor vulnerability or crises; these surveys are data which until now have not been used much in this area of research.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2832.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2832

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Related research
Keywords: banking crisis; leading indicators; Kazakhstan;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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  16. Sebastian G. Kessing, 2009. "Federalism and Accountability with Distorted Election Choices," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 130-09, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Thomas Aronsson & Erkki Koskela, 2009. "Optimal Income Taxation, Outsourcing and Policy Cooperation in a Dynamic Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  24. Devis Geron, 2009. "Social Security Incidence under Uncertainty Assessing Italian Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

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