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Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies

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  • Ruslan Aliyev

Abstract

The economic literature acknowledges that to avoid the resource curse, resource- rich countries should restrict fiscal expansion and save a significant part of resource revenues outside the domestic economy. However, in these countries governments tend to ineffectively spend a considerable part of windfall revenues in the short run. In this research I construct a DSGE model for a small, open economy to show that if fiscal indiscipline in the form of immediate responses to foreign resource revenue changes is inevitable, then monetary policy can help improve the allocation problem. The simulation results indicate that targeting the exchange rate or price level through foreign exchange interventions by the central bank can soften the negative effects of Dutch Disease and stabilize the economy in the face of volatile natural resource revenues in the short run. I also find that a fixed exchange rate regime outperforms price level targeting by delivering higher isolation and hence less vulnerability to shocks in natural resource revenues. In contrast, if the central bank chooses to pursue a laissez faire policy, i.e., not to intervene, then the economy becomes vulnerable to shocks in foreign resource revenues and the resource curse becomes more severe.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague in its series CERGE-EI Working Papers with number wp466.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp466

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Keywords: monetary policy; Dutch disease; resource-rich countries; macroeconomic stabilization;

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  4. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2008. "Capital Inflows, Dutch Disease Effects, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 971-989, November.
  5. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
  6. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2009. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2571, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Ruy Lama, 2010. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization a+L4510n Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," IMF Working Papers 10/182, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  10. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  11. Corden, W M, 1982. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Resources Boom," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 58(160), pages 18-31, March.
  12. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political economy of resource-driven growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 839-846, May.
  13. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Christopher Adam & Stephen O’Connell & Edward Buffie, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules For Manging Aid Surges In Africa," WEF Working Papers 0016, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  15. Corden, W. Max, 1994. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774099.
  16. Ilkin Aliyev, 2012. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Resource-Rich Countries?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp464, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  17. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Constraintson the Design and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Oil Economies," IMF Working Papers 08/142, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Alexandr Cerny & Randall K. Filer, 2007. "Natural Resources: Are They Really a Curse?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp321, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  19. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
  20. Carlos De Resende & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance," Working Papers 08-28, Bank of Canada.
  21. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Impact of Government Expenditureon Growth," IMF Working Papers 08/115, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 06/145, International Monetary Fund.
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