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The Case for Exchange Rate Flexibility in Oil-Exporting Economies

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  • Brad Setser

    (Council on Foreign Relations)

Abstract

High oil prices are again transforming oil-exporting countries. With oil trading at $90 a barrel, government coffers in these countries are overflowing with the oil windfall, and stock markets there are booming. However, one feature of these oil exporters has not changed: their propensity to peg to the dollar. Large oil-exporting economies that border the Persian Gulf peg to the dollar even more tightly than China does while some others peg to a basket of currencies of oil-importing countries--mainly the dollar and the euro. These economies are making a policy mistake. They would be better served by a currency regime that assures their currencies depreciate when the price of oil falls and appreciate when the price of oil rises. Those that lack the institutions to conduct an autonomous monetary policy should peg to a basket that includes the price of oil. Exchange rate flexibility would reduce the need for domestic prices in the oil-exporting economies to rise and fall along with the price of oil, create additional room for monetary policy to reflect domestic conditions, and help oil-exporting economies manage the large swings in government revenue that accompany large swings in the oil price. The time has come to decouple the currencies of large oil-exporting economies from the dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Brad Setser, 2007. "The Case for Exchange Rate Flexibility in Oil-Exporting Economies," Policy Briefs PB07-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb07-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Dargahi & Mehdi Hadian, 2022. "Oil shocks, financial stability and implementing macroeconomics and macro‐prudential policies in an oil‐exporting economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2481-2496, April.
    2. Adam S. Posen, 2008. "Why the Euro will Not Rival the Dollar," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 75-100, May.
    3. Eszter WIRTH, 2019. "The Coherence between Sovereign Wealth Funds and Fiscal and Monetary Policies: the Norwegian Case (2001-2017)," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.
    4. Al Jabri, Salwa & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2022. "Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Faudot, Adrien, 2014. "Le régime rentier d’accumulation en Arabie saoudite et son mode de régulation," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 16.
    6. Sameena Hameed, 2020. "Political Economy of Rentierism in the Middle East and Disruptions from the Digital Space," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 7(1), pages 54-89, March.
    7. Khalid Rashid Alkhater & Syed Abul Basher, 2016. "The oil cycle, the Federal Reserve, and the monetary and exchange rate policies of Qatar," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 127-155, January.
    8. Sohag, Kazi & Sokhanvar, Amin & Belyaeva, Zhanna & Mirnezami, Seyed Reza, 2022. "Hydrocarbon prices shocks, fiscal stability and consolidation: Evidence from Russian Federation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Al-Abri, Almukhtar Saif, 2014. "Optimal exchange rate policy for a small oil-exporting country: A dynamic general equilibrium perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 88-98.
    10. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(8), pages 1135-1164, August.
    11. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Selahattin Togay, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy for Postwar Iraq," Working Papers 0813, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    12. Mohsin S. Khan, 2010. "The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    14. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1324-1336, September.
    15. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    16. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    17. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US‐Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, February.
    18. Louis Sevitenyi Nkwatoh & Yahya Zakari Abdullahi & Chika Usman Aliyu, 2019. "Past and Current European Monetary Union Crises: Lessons for the Envisaged West African Monetary Union," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 50-59.
    19. Almukhtar Saif Al-Abri, 2014. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and Optimal Exchange Rate Regime in Resource-Rich MENA Countries," Working Papers 844, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2014.
    20. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Swiston, Andrew, 2019. "A crude shock: Explaining the short-run impact of the 2014–16 oil price decline across exporters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 481-493.

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