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Do well managed firms make better forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Takafumi Kawakubo
  • Charlotte Meng
  • Paul Mizen
  • Rebecca Riley
  • Tatsuro Senga
  • John Van Reenen

Abstract

We link a new UK management survey covering 8,000 firms to panel data on productivity in manufacturing and services. There is a large variation in management practices, which are highly correlated with productivity, profitability and size. Uniquely, the survey collects firms' micro forecasts of their own sales and also macro forecasts of GDP. We find that better managed firms make more accurate micro and macro forecasts, even after controlling for their size, age, industry and many other factors. We also show better managed firms appear aware that their forecasts are more accurate, with lower subjective uncertainty around central values. These stylized facts suggest that one reason for the superior performance of better managed firms is that they knowingly make more accurate forecasts, enabling them to make superior operational and strategic choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Bloom & Takafumi Kawakubo & Charlotte Meng & Paul Mizen & Rebecca Riley & Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen, 2022. "Do well managed firms make better forecasts?," POID Working Papers 023, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:poidwp:023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1351-1408.
    3. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    4. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
    5. Tanaka, Mari & Bloom, Nicholas & David, Joel M. & Koga, Maiko, 2020. "Firm performance and macro forecast accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 26-41.
    6. Daniela Scur & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen & Renata Lemos & Nicholas Bloom, 2021. "The World Management Survey at 18: lessons and the way forward," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 231-258.
    7. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    11. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    12. Nicholas Bloom & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lucia Foster & Ron Jarmin & Megha Patnaik & Itay Saporta-Eksten & John Van Reenen, 2019. "What Drives Differences in Management Practices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1648-1683, May.
    13. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
    15. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    16. Buffington, Catherine & Foster, Lucia & Jarmin, Ron & Ohlmacher, Scott & Ohlmacher, Scott, 2017. "The management and organizational practices survey (MOPS): An overview1," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 1, pages 1-26.
    17. Nicholas Bloom & Stephen J. Davis & Lucia Foster & Brian Lucking & Scott Ohlmacher & Itay Saporta Eksten, 2020. "Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-181, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    19. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Bilicka & Daniela Scur, 2021. "Organizational capacity and profit shifting," CEP Discussion Papers dp1795, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Imani, Yusuke & Ohyama, Atsushi, 2022. "The Roles of Structured Management in the Formation of Transactional Relationships," TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series E-2021-07, Teikoku Databank Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
    4. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Suss, Joel & Hughes, Adam, 2023. "Bank expectations and prudential outcomes," Bank of England working papers 1035, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    management; productivity; expectations; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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