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Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

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  • Singh, Nirvikar
  • Mora, Jesse
  • Carolan, Terrie

Abstract

We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant changes occurred in trade composition during this period. We use a measure of normalized trade balances, developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995). For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade have shown statistically significant changes in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of normalized trade balances, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods, were important in the development of the East Asian economies.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt0fm1r83r.

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Date of creation: 15 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt0fm1r83r

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Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences; international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;

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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Econometrics, EconWPA 9508002, EconWPA.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
  3. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2003. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2003-21, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  4. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Colin I. Bradford, Jr. & William H. Branson, 1987. "Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad87-1.
  6. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Nobuaki Yamashita, 2005. "Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2005-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  8. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 3084, The World Bank.
  9. Dean, Judith M. & Lovely, Mary E. & Mora, Jesse, 2009. "Decomposing China-Japan-U.S. trade: Vertical specialization, ownership, and organizational form," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 596-610, November.
  10. Carter, Colin A. & Li, Xianghong, 2002. "Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China’s agricultural trade patterns," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(2), June.
  11. John Fernald & Hali Edison & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-48, April.
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