Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992
AbstractWe examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant changes occurred in trade composition during this period. We use a measure of normalized trade balances, developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995). For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade have shown statistically significant changes in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of normalized trade balances, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods, were important in the development of the East Asian economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt0fm1r83r.
Date of creation: 15 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Social and Behavioral Sciences; international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;
Other versions of this item:
- Carolan, Terrie & Mora, Jesse & Singh, Nirvikar, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," MPRA Paper 37124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
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