Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992
AbstractWe examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced. Keywords: international trade flows, time series, ADF, KPSS, trends, economic development JEL Codes: F02, F14, F17, O14
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0412003.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 24
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;
Other versions of this item:
- Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tj8w5sg, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tj8w5sg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3f18v4sj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995.
"Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP,"
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Colin I. Bradford, Jr. & William H. Branson, 1987. "Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad87-1, July.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995.
"Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis,"
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-62, January.
- Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-48, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.