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Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

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  • Nirvikar Singh

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Terrie Carolan

Abstract

We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced. Keywords: international trade flows, time series, ADF, KPSS, trends, economic development JEL Codes: F02, F14, F17, O14

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0412003.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0412003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 24
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;

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  1. Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-48, April.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-62, January.
  3. Colin I. Bradford, Jr. & William H. Branson, 1987. "Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad87-1.
  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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