Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992
AbstractWe examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced. Keywords: international trade flows, time series, ADF, KPSS, trends, economic development JEL Codes: F02, F14, F17, O14
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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
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international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;
Other versions of this item:
- Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tj8w5sg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tj8w5sg, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar, 2004. "Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3f18v4sj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- O14 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
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