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Subjective mortality risk and bequests

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  • Gan, Li
  • Gong, Guan
  • Hurd, Michael
  • McFadden, Daniel

Abstract

This paper investigates the ability of subjective expectations about life expectancy to predict wealth holding patterns in later life. Based on panel data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old, we estimate a structural life-cycle model with bequests. Each individual's subjective survival rates in the future are estimated with data on his belief of survival probabilities to a target age. This estimation is build upon a Bayesian updating method developed in Gan et al. (2005). We find that life-cycle model using subjective survival rates performs better than using life-table survival rates in predicting wealth holdings. This result suggests that subjective survival expectations play an important role in deciding consumption and savings. In addition, the estimation results show that most bequests are involuntary or accidental.

Suggested Citation

  • Gan, Li & Gong, Guan & Hurd, Michael & McFadden, Daniel, 2015. "Subjective mortality risk and bequests," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt88p5f2qz, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt88p5f2qz
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bonekamp, Johan & Wouterse, Bram, 2023. "Do different shocks in health matter for wealth?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Stöckel, Jannis & van Exel, Job & Brouwer, Werner B.F., 2023. "Adaptation in life satisfaction and self-assessed health to disability - Evidence from the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics; Applied Economics; Aging; Clinical Research; Good Health and Well Being; Subjective mortality risk; Bequest; Life-cycle model; Median regression; C81; D91; Statistics; Econometrics; Applied economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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